This is usually the place we'd surface some interesting, funny, or noteworthy industry headlines from the past week.
But it's a slow time of year for industry news, so instead we've got something a little more fun: 3 predictions for the industry in the year ahead.
Will the predictions come true? I don't know, though I hope I'm wrong about the first one, right about third, and don't really have a point of view on the 2nd.
đ 1. Brewery closings will accelerate.
2024 was bad for craft breweries. Some hopeful folks in the brewing industry have told me that closings have reached their peak, and that we'll see fewer this year than last.
I think the opposite will be true.
Struggles rooted in COVID continue to flag everybody, costs remain high for breweries and customers, and it feels like brewers have been forced to start playing a new game, one where the rules and best practices aren't exactly clear yet.
Continually adjusting, trying new things, and figuring out a profitable stance is exhausting, especially when you're only scraping by. More folks than last year will decide it just isn't worth it anymore and close up shop.
Combine that with the breweries that will close because they just aren't in great places financially, and there'll be more closings than last year.
𤡠2. We still won't have clarity from health authorities about whether drinking is healthy or unhealthy.
There was whiplash last year: we thought low drinking (1-2 a day) was fine, and even healthy...until all of a sudden studies found that it wasn't. The World Health Organization now says no amount of alcohol is safe...but the CDC has held firm to it's guidance that 1-2 drinks a day is fine.
This is a mess, and involves organizations that move at a glacial pace. No way there'll be clarity any time soon.
đ 3. 2025 will be a better year for the service industry as a whole.
Inflation seems primed to stay pretty low (barring any tariff craziness from Trump and co.). And though we've been hearing it for a couple years now, wages really are going to start catching up for everyone. And guests will finally be used to the higher prices for everything, eliminating the sticker shock that's kept a lot of folks home for dinners and drinks lately.
All of that is a recipe for customers to be more willing to spend time and money at bars and restaurants.
Feedback? Have your own predictions? Reply to this email and let me know.